Buy low, sell high is the name of the game when trading within financial markets but let’s be real, it’s much more fun to apply it to baseball. As the trade deadline approaches, GMs in real life and fantasy alike assess where their teams are and what direction they should take it but it’s not always obvious where the money is. So here are a few ideas for buy low, sell high candidates to cash in before the playoffs.
Sell High Candidates
Brandon Marsh, OF — Philadelphia Phillies
This has been a career year for Marsh. He is currently hitting .297/.335/.484 with 15 homeruns and eight stolen bases. His batting average, slugging percentage and homerun pace are all career highs thus far. This begs the question: has he unlocked something in his age 28 season, or will he fall back to his career norms?
In Marsh’s favor, it looks like he has changed his approach a bit this year. He is walking less and swinging about 7% more than last year. His pull AIR percentage is also at a career high of 18.1%. His outcomes on certain pitches have also completely flipped.
In 2025, he hit over .300 on both breaking and offspeed pitches and under .250 on fastball. This year, he is hitting .328 on fastballs and under .250 on breaking and offspeed pitches. This tells us he is sitting on fastballs and looking to pull them to really step into his natural power. And it’s been working. Seven of Marsh’s homeruns have come on fastballs this year, not to mention his whiff rate on them has also decreased by about 1%.
Where it gets interesting, he also has seven homeruns off breaking balls but only has a .248 batting average with a .212 xBA against those types of pitches. He is also whiffing on breaking pitches 6% more and off-speed pitches a whopping 13% more. His chase rate has also increased from 29.1% to 37.7%, good enough to place him in the bottom 10% of the league. While he has become more successful against fastballs, he has given up success with breaking and off-speed pitches.
His saving grace is the fact that his launch angle sweet spot is better than 99% of the league at 44.3%. So, when he’s not chasing off-speed pitches off the plate, he has been able to maximize his chances at sending the ball over the wall. Based on his xBA on those pitches, there don’t seem to be great odds of that continuing.
Marsh looks to be one league adjustment away from being unable to continue his scorching first half. Shopping him around would be prudent for any manager. The outfield position is one of the deepest in baseball and moving Marsh to fill a real gap in any roster could end up being a great move for those teams in contention for a playoff spot.
Trade Targets: Shane McClanahan, Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis Jr.
Randy Arozarena, OF — Seattle Mariners
Arozarena has a very good chance to reach 20 homeruns and 20 stolen bases for the sixth straight season. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in that regard. On the other hand, his batting line has been somewhat all over the place over the past few years. Here are his batting lines since 2023. I have included BABIP as well to add a little context:
2023: .254/.364/.425, BABIP: .310
2024: .219/.332/.388, BABIP: .275
2025: .238/.334/.426, BABIP: .298
2026: .284/.379/.448, BABIP: .341
The story here is not whether Arozarena is good or bad, it’s just that his range of outcomes can vary quite dramatically. Thus far in 2026, he has dropped his bat speed from 72.3 MPH to 70.9 MPH, giving him a slight boost in bat control and in return a 2% boost in his contact rate. Sometimes a little goes a long way. That isn’t all that has changed though.
The biggest difference between this year and last for Arozarena is his launch angle sweet spot percentage. It jumped from 32.6% in 2025 to 37.2% here in 2026. To put it simply, he has been able to get more on top of the ball than he was last year. This has led to an increase in line drives and an infield flyball rate that is half what it was last year.
Less pop ups and more line drives allow him to affect the game more often than before, hence why his WAR thus far in 2026 has almost matched the whole 2025 season already. This is great for the Mariners, but it has also sapped Arozarena’s power for fantasy purposes.
In 2026, Arozarena has required an extra ten plate appearances per homerun than he did in 2025. Now, some will happily take the tradeoff, especially considering Arozarena’s increased presence on the basepaths has also translated into 19 steals. As of now he is still a three to four category contributor depending on the league. Everything looks great for Arozarena, so why put him on the sell list?
Well, that’s exactly the reason. This is the first time since the 2021 and 2022 seasons that Arozarena appears to not have any holes in his game. The problem is he’s 31 years old, has experienced a decrease in foot speed for six straight seasons and has season outcomes that could hit every corner on a scatter plot. Put that together with the fact that he has had one of the best half seasons of his career and one come to the conclusion that this is a great time to cash in. It’s always better to move a player a year (or half a year) early, than a year late.
This applies to dynasty a bit more than redraft, but with an xBA almost 20 points lower than his actual batting average, Arozarena is still a good chip to trade in for some assets that can really make a difference down the stretch.
Trade Targets: CJ Abrams, Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jesus Luzardo
TJ Rumfield, 1B — Colorado Rockies
Rumfield has had a surprisingly successful 2026 season so far. He is hitting .298/.382/.475 with 13 homeruns and no stolen bases through 392 plate appearances. On the surface, he is a great four-category contributor and maybe even good enough to be the lite version of Freddie Freeman. The problem is that they couldn’t be on more opposite ends of the spectrum when looking at underlying metrics on Statcast.
Go to Freddie Freeman’s statcast page and you might as well be looking at a sea of red. Basically every category is better than at least 60% of the league. Rumfield on the other hand is floating around in the deep blue.
His expected average is sitting at .255, a whopping 43-point difference to his actual average. The same goes for his expected slugging percentage, sitting almost 100 points below his current level. While he has been well above league average in walks and strikeouts, the underlying metrics aren’t exactly in agreement with his production thus far into the season.
Another potential negative catalyst for Rumfield is the call-up of Charlie Condon, the top prospect for the Rockies. He has been scorching hot in Triple-A all season and is expected to get an opportunity on the big-league club sooner rather than later. If he can have continued success in Colorado, Rumfield could very well lose playing time. Make the move while the numbers are pretty and maybe you can pick up Condon as he gets the call as well.
Trade Targets: Sam Antonacci, Griffin Jax, Cody Bellinger, Jonathan Aranda
Connelly Early, SP — Washington Nationals
Early has been great for the Red Sox this season posting a 3.44 ERA over 91.2 innings of work with 93 strikeouts. The Sox decided it would be a good time to cash in for some hitting and send him over to the Nationals in exchange for Curtis Mead, a player previously mentioned on this site, who is having a breakout season. In this instance, I think it’s safe to say we should follow in the footsteps of the Red Sox front office.
While Early has looked great on the surface, his underlying stats point toward luck being on his side this season. His xERA is sitting almost a full run over his current ERA at 4.35, while the rest of his statcast data supports more of the same with no metric sitting over the 61st percentile. His chase percentage is the metric that stands out as his best weapon so far. From there, we can look toward Stuff+ to see if we are missing any potential here.
Right now, his Stuff+ does sit slightly above league average at 103, but nowhere near elite territory. Mix that with his 97 Location+ and you get a full Pitching+ of 100. Exactly league average, which at 24 years old and with plenty of team control left will probably be a great pickup for a Nationals team with a limited pitching ceiling. But for fantasy managers looking to maximize their roster for a playoff run, moving a guy like Early could prove to be highly beneficial.
One (or two) quick notes here; the overall park factors between Fenway and Nationals Park are essentially zero, but where Fenway tends to suppress homeruns more than most ballparks in the league, Nationals Park tends to slightly increase the chance for homeruns. Make moves accordingly. Also, don’t forget Early is currently going through some elbow inflammation, so one might wonder if that had anything to do with the Red Sox moving on this early…no pun intended.
Trade Targets: Jackson Merrill, Eury Perez, Miguel Vargas
Buy Low Candidates
Corbin Carroll, OF — Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll’s name alone is going to command a decent package in return, so this may be a buy high scenario, but for a lot of managers his 2026 season has been a bit of a disappointment. One man’s disappointment is another man’s treasure…or something like that.
Carroll is hitting .250/.343/.487. It really isn’t the worst line by any means and somewhat consistent with the last couple of years, but it is a far cry from the 2023 season managers were hoping Carroll could replicate again.
After joining the 30-30 club last year, Carroll has been unable to keep up the pace this season. He is currently on pace for only 24 homeruns and 17-20 steals. Not quite what most managers expected. The bright side is his underlying metrics are still great.
His average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage are all better than 75% of the league and he is walking at a career high. This is all especially great news once you look at Carroll’s 1st and 2nd half splits over the last two years:
2024 1st Half: .212/.301/.334, 5 HR, 18 SB
2025 1st Half: .245/.324/.550, 21 HR, 11 SB
And the 2nd half for each year:
2024 2nd Half: .258/.351/.568, 17 HR, 17 SB
2025 2nd Half: .277/.367/.529, 10 HR, 21 SB
Aside from the homeruns he hit in the first half of the 2025 season, both years show a significant boost to his overall line and counting stats. I’d bet on a talent like Carroll to continue getting better as the season progresses and produce another elite second half.
Trade Candidates: Jackson Chourio, Gerrit Cole, Munetaka Murakami
Jackson Merrill, OF — San Diego Padres
The premise is simple for Merrill. He has struggled this year but is only two years removed from a season where he hit 24 homeruns and stole 16 bases to go along with a .292/.326/.500 slash line. At just 23 years old, he has not even hit his prime yet and looks to be recovering from the slump.
Merrill’s counting stats thus far have been sneaky good with 14 homeruns and 20 stolen bases as of July 26th. It’s the .228 batting average and the .282 on-base percentage that make this an interesting buy for the second half of the season.
While Merrill’s Baseball Savant page isn’t bleeding red across the board, it’s very respectable and shows some signs of positive regression. His xBA sits right on the line of .250, his hard-hit percentage is better than 77% of the league and his barrel percentage is better than 64%, all of which support a better second half. He is also sitting with a .274 BABIP right now. While not egregiously low, it is the lowest of his young career, so things should be looking up, but one may want to hurry and make a move soon because Merrill, in a small sample size, is already starting to turn the corner.
So far in July, he is hitting .288/.326/.538 with six homeruns and two stolen bases, much closer to his stellar 2024 season. I’ll be sending offers out in my own leagues right after finishing this article. Managers in dynasty league should especially be targeting Merrill considering his age and history of success. Grab him and don’t look back.
Trade Candidates: Bryan Reynolds, Jung Hoo Lee, Michael Wacha, Connelly Early
Bryan Woo, SP — Seattle Mariners
Woo is the opposite profile of Connelly Early here. His top-tier command has not given him the same results as the past few years, but this mostly looks like it is attributed to a bit of bad luck.
Woo’s bread and butter is still elite. His walk rate is better than 93% of the league. The one issue with having such great command and throwing strikes all the time is that hitters eventually know you are going to throw strikes. So, Woo is getting a little less swing and miss this year because of it. The league always makes adjustments.
The other difference here is Woo’s pitch mix. He’s traded in his sinker for more sliders and sweepers, both of which are being thrown three to four percent more than last year while the sinker is down about seven percent. What’s interesting is his slider has much less break than it did last year and that’s resulted in opponents batting at a clip 50 points higher, while whiffing about seven percent less. The sweeper is seeing a similar outcome with a 27-point increase in opponent batting average and a 10 percent decrease in whiff rate.
On the surface, this could be misconstrued as an issue. The sinker was his worst pitch last year with an opponent’s batting average of .258 and a whiff rate of only 10.8%, but even with the decrease in whiff rates, both the slider and sweeper have performed comparatively better. With that said, it makes sense that the Mariners and Woo are looking to add some unpredictability to his repertoire, especially considering every other pitch he throws is a fastball.
Under the hood it’s working just fine. His xERA is sitting in the 68th percentile at 3.52 while his opponent’s expected batting average is at .240, so while these aren’t quite elite, he is making adjustments. Once he is able to put the new sequence together and trust all his pitches in any scenario, Woo could take an even further step forward in the second half, as well as in his career. He’s a buy for me.
Trade Candidates: Jonathan Aranda, Jeremy Pena, Justin Wrobleski, Chase DeLauter
Quick Hit Buy Low, Sell High Options:
Sells:
Liam Hicks – Hicks has been riding a high all season long with almost no underlying stats to support it, and with Shea Langeliers going down for the season there is an opportunity here. He has good bat control but I would expect a repeat of the first half.
Michael Wacha – Again, he has increased his ERA every month this season. At 35, especially in dynasty league, this could be your last shot to get something in return.
Garrett Mitchell – This one should probably be included above considering he has a .403 BABIP and a 32.2% strikeout rate. A relatively extreme strikeout rate, mixed with a BABIP over 100 points above average, is a recipe for major regression.
Robbie Ray – With the Giants reportedly ready to move on from Ray themselves, most would probably benefit from doing the same. His ERA looks great at 3.16 but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is telling a different story at 4.49. Ray is a gamer, but age could also be a factor here once getting deep into the season, or if the Giants move him to a less pitcher-friendly park.
Buys:
Dustin May – In the opposite position as Ray, May might actually be a nice piece to support a playoff team down the stretch considering the difference between his ERA (4.59) and FIP (3.15). He shouldn’t command too much in return either. He has been a solid worker for me in a league or two. Don’t forget he also took a perfect game into the seventh inning earlier this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Tatis has rebounded nicely from the beginning of the season but his current homerun total is still nowhere near what his usual output is. Luckily, he has made up for it a bit with stolen bases but there may still be some owners out there that are disappointed.
Francisco Alvarez – This one is more the Shea Langeliers owners out there. Alvarez has similar power to Langeliers but his line isn’t all that impressive right now due to swing and miss issues. If you had Langeliers, you may be able to replace a little bit of that gap with Alvarez without breaking the bank.
Extra Innings:
Welcome to the grind. This is the part of the season that requires shrewd moves by managers that want to see themselves hoist the trophy above their head at the end of the year. Use this article as a starting point and look into any deal that can give you an edge during a playoff run or even a rebuild.
Don’t forget about roster construction either. A lot of the suggested trade candidates are the start of an idea that can grow into a deal. Some are underpays and some are overpays but know who your targets are and who you’re willing to part with. Send some feelers out and target what the other team’s needs are.
In some cases, you could even just copy front office executives like Craig Breslow and move Early on a guy like Curtis Mead…pun intended.
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