The Tarik Skubal trade conversation is the defining story of the 2026 MLB deadline. The obvious headliner of 2026, the two-time back-to-back Cy Young award winner is likely to be on the move before August 3rd. Although there has been recent speculation that there is an outside chance Skubal doesn’t get traded considering the Tigers have somewhat turned their performance around during June, I assume that won’t be enough to change the plan here as Skubal is set to be a free agent at seasons end.
Moving a two-time Cy Young at the deadline to improve an already impressive young core, seems like the prudent thing to do for the Tigers front office. With Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, along with Max Clark awaiting the call down in the minors, their lineup is primed for success. Their pitching depth is currently living on the IL though, which doesn’t bode well for a playoff run and is part of the reason moving Skubal could help bring in some talent for a run over the next three or four years.
That begs the question, which players would be primed to contribute in that time frame and what team would be willing to part with the talent necessary to acquire Skubal. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs are all assuredly in the mix. The Yankees helped themselves out by shelling Skubal for four runs over six innings on the 24th, bringing Skubals ERA to 4.96 since returning earlier than expected from surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow. Whether or not that is indicative of anything bigger has yet to be seen, but it serves as another potential reason for the Tigers to get what they can for a pitcher whose time in Detroit could very well be up.
Yankees
The Yankees currently have a rotation deep enough to carry them deep into a postseason run with Gerrit Cole back on the field and Cam Schlittler having a Cy Young campaign thus far. Adding a player like Skubal puts them over the top and a favorite to win any five or seven game series. On the contrary, it may not be worth it in the long term if your pitching is already solid, especially if it requires giving up top prospect, George Lombard Jr. The fact that George Lombard Sr. is a bench coach for the Tigers is also swirling up rumors that this is one of the main targets the Tigers are after.
Currently in Triple-A, Lombard is a top 25 prospect and the best option the Yankees have to solve the offensive and defensive issues Anthony Volpe has shown at the shortstop position over the past few years. Although, in his defense, Volpe’s hitting has seemed to improve since taking a break to gather himself in Triple-A earlier this year, but the odds of them moving on from Lombard for a rental of Skubal for a few months don’t seem very high.
While being first in line to negotiate a long-term deal with a pitcher as great as Skubal is valuable, Elmer Rodriguez, is another top 100 prospect that the Tigers would be asking about. A groundball specialist that has shown the ability to limit homeruns and hard contact at one of the more fly ball friendly ballparks in the league is nothing to scoff at.
This makes me think the chance of the Yankees acquiring Skubal is more realistically going to be during the offseason. But who knows, maybe the Yankees will give Lombard a shot at the starting job in New York and push to move Volpe and Rodriguez for the chance to lock down one of the best pitchers of this decade. Not a bad idea, if you ask me. More likely though, the Tigers would prefer to bring over the bench coaches’ son, along with Rodriguez to bolster their current core of young talent.
Dodgers
The Dodgers are another favorite to acquire Skubal. I on the other hand don’t quite see it as obvious as some make it out to be. Over the last few years the Dodgers have done nothing but acquire and develop a list of great pitching. From Shohei Ohtani to Justin Wrobleski and all the talent on the IL currently, the two-time champs are still set up for success even without a move for another Cy Young caliber arm. Even though they have an opportunity to successfully complete a three-pete for first time in a long time, I don’t think the Dodgers are willing to give up the farm at this point in their dynasty run.
The team is quietly getting older. More specifically, their hitters are getting older. As of 2026, the Dodgers average age for batters sits at 30.6, the oldest in the sport. Sooner or later — more likely sooner — the Dodgers are going to need an influx of younger talent to fill the lineup with. Trading your top prospects, which happen to be hitters doesn’t quite seem like the smart move.
Freddie Freeman is almost 37 and a free agent after the 2027 season, Teoscar Hernandez is soon to be 34 and has a club option after the 2027 season. Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, and Enrique Hernandez are all going to be 34 years or older after the 2026 season. That leaves Kyle Tucker, Will Smith, and Tommy Edman as the only guys under the age of 32. Let’s also not forget Ohtani is right in the middle of those two groups. So, are the Dodgers in dire need of young talent? No, but is there an outside chance they get bogged down in underwater contracts as their core hitters start to age? A chance, yes.
The Dodgers are about to pay Kyle Tucker a fortune next season. He was supposed to be one of the best hitters in the league and was…before he signed with the Dodgers. So far in 2026, Tucker ranks 124th in baseball with a 99 wRC+. That is a tick below league average for the youngest and highest paid hitter of the group. With that in consideration, the optics of moving a couple top prospects for Tarik Skubal suddenly does not seem like it would be in the best interest of the Dodgers right now.
It’s the Dodgers though and you can never count them out of anything, especially when it comes to acquiring talent at the deadline. Let’s not forget, River Ryan, a bit of a post-hype prospect remains in Triple-A with plenty of team control. There is upside there but he’s already 27, so the package around him would need to be substantial enough to clear Detroit’s bar. I wouldn’t put it past them to wait until the offseason and drop another big bag of cash on Skubal’s doorway.
Cubs
Speaking of doorways, the Cubs also have a unique opening to acquire Detroit’s ace but it comes with hurdles of its own to make it happen. The Cubs by far and away have the worst rotation of the three teams already mentioned and are in desperate need of a pitcher that can really carry them through a playoff series. The problem is they have potentially 14 major leaguers coming off the roster after the end of this season.
Guys like Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Shota Imanaga are a part of that list. This also means there is a lot of money that will potentially be coming off the payroll. This is all great news when thinking about trying to sign a perennial Cy Young candidate to complement the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, and Alex Bregman, but there is one problem here. The Cubs may not have the prospects to both make a deal and supply their big-league club with the talent necessary to compete consistently over the next few years.
Happ and Suzuki leaving would all but guarantee Kevin Alcantara a spot on next years opening day roster, so unless extensions are in place it may be tough to include him in a trade for a rental. Carson Kelly found a nice groove in 2026, but he has a mutual option that could make him a free agent at seasons end.
Although Moises Ballesteros was probably going to win the starting job next year anyway, that puts him on the back burner for trade consideration. You have to dig a little deeper into Double-A to find the next best prospect the Cubs have in Jefferson Rojas. Dig even further into the minors and you’ll find Josiah Hartshorn in High-A ball. This is where things could potentially become interesting.
Barring any moves, the Cubs infield is solidified at least until 2029. Nevertheless, the age and performance of the current core is a bit up in the air here. Dansby Swanson is currently slogging through his worst year at the plate. Neither his standard, nor his statcast metrics show much light at the end of the tunnel other than his walk rate. All of his value is coming from his fielding and baserunning, which to be fair, for a shortstop can be acceptable. And although he does have 11 homeruns and 10 stolen bases, a .196/.295/.373 line is a tough pill to swallow.
The former number one overall pick has the capability to turn things around, but this is where the Cubs will need to make their decision, because Jefferson Rojas and Josiah Hartshorn will almost certainly be asked about if not required by the Tigers front office to get a deal done for Skubal. Rojas is closer to being major league ready but is an infielder with no path as long as the current core stays put. While Hartshorn, an outfielder hitting .298/.416/.550 in High-A, would potentially be a great replacement for Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki, but is only 18 and probably at least a couple years away from getting the call.
Luckily for Chicago, they’re a top five offensive team right now, even with Swanson struggling, so this could be the last window the Cubs see for a while. On the pitching side, it’s the exact opposite, so a move for Skubal would make perfect sense in the short term and immediately allow the Cubs to anchor their rotation through multiple playoff series.
With that said, the contract situation could prove to be too difficult of a hurdle to clear with the price of Skubal. A cheaper alternative in Joe Ryan could be a great pivot. Although not in the same tier as Skubal, Ryan is another quality arm speculated to be moved at the deadline. He has been excellent this year, posting a 3.16 ERA across 93.1 innings with a 10.41 K/9 and a microscopic 1.83 BB/9. With numbers like that, Ryan would be a much welcome addition.
Either way, there is no way the Cubs will be able to take down some of the best teams in baseball without an improved rotation. They are very much aware of this as they have already added David Peterson. His FIP of 3.86 points to some unluckiness in his 6.09 ERA on the year, so hopefully we’ll see some positive regression there for the Cubs’ sake. Even with Peterson in the mix, the Cubs have some important decisions to make over the next five weeks and only time will tell which route they will decidedly take.
Braves
The Braves are an interesting dark horse option in the mix as well. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that several executives across the league view Atlanta as the sleeper team in the Skubal sweepstakes. They currently lead the NL East by four games even with injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider.
A one-two punch with Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation would easily vault them into one of the favorites to win the World Series. The question is, do they have the talent to get a deal done? The simple answer is yes. The next question is do they have talent they are willing to part with to get a deal done? That’s not a foregone conclusion, just yet.
Their top prospect, J.R. Ritchie is a back-end starter that the Tigers could easily plug and play as soon as this year, and would fit their requirement for “controllable pitching and athletic position players close to big league-ready”. I think the Braves would be fine moving him for a playoff run with Skubal, but the Tigers wouldn’t stop there. Beyond that, most of the Braves top talents are sitting in High-A ball. Cam Caminiti, Eric Hartman, and Tate Southisene are all on the list of players I would expect the Tigers to want included in a trade.
The Braves have a few decisions to make here though with both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies having club options at the end of this season, as well as a few others set to hit free agency this winter. I fully expect Acuna’s and Albies’ options to be executed. That gives the Braves a year or two more with the core that brought them a championship in 2021.
Adding an elite piece like Skubal drastically increases their chances of doing that again before new talent is required to enter the building. Given that the Braves don’t have elite prospects in the system right now, a move like this could allow them to jump through the window while it’s still open. If the Braves could pull off a trade for Skubal by including both Ritchie and Eric Hartman or Tate Southisene, I think they jump at that chance.
In a scenario like that, the Braves would get to keep their 2025 first rounder in Cam Caminiti (just in case they aren’t able to extend Skubal) as well as some talent to fill the roster if Acuna and Albies decide to test free agency. All in all, the Braves would be adding another ace to the rotation for another run at a ring with the core that already proved they can win it all in 2021.
Do the Tigers take a deal like that, or would it require all four to close the deal? Only time will tell but there is definitely a world in which Skubal ends his season in an Atlanta Braves jersey.
Brewers
While all the cities previously mentioned are good fits for Skubal, there may be something brewing over in Milwaukee. A bit more of an underdog team here, the Brewers have a roster construction that could see them go all the way with the addition of a third ace in the rotation. Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison have already proven to be one of the best duos of any pitching staff in baseball, but adding a third would solidify them as a legitimate contender to take down the Dodgers this year.
Currently 50-29, the Brewers already have the second-best record in baseball. On the farm system side, they also have some of the best prospects in the game. This gives them one of the best chances to make a legitimate run at the World Series. The only thing that’s stopping the Brewers though, is the Brewers themselves.
Over the past few years, they have been known to let go of aging veteran starters, not acquire them. They traded Freddy Peralta instead of extending him. They let Corbin Burnes walk, and if it wasn’t obvious by their current record, it has worked out pretty well for them. But the Brewers are in a different situation now.
There is a chance to take home a ring and they have the prospects to do it. As of now, the Brewers have eight prospects ranked in the top 100 according to Baseball America. At number one overall, Jesus Made is assumed untouchable. Luis Lara (50th overall) just signed a seven-year extension with the team and seems to effectively be off the table as well. Luis Pena, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to qualify for the Tigers requirement of position players that are close to big-league ready.
This leaves Jett Williams, and potentially the 76th overall, Josh Adamczewski. The only thing missing is controllable pitching, and none of the Brewers’ top 100 prospects are pitchers. Brandon Sproat would have qualified before his MLB promotion, which means the Brewers would have to pull from their active rotation to satisfy Detroit’s requirements to make a deal happen for the back-to-back Cy Young winner.
Sproat makes the most sense here as he is not so far removed from being a top 100 prospect himself and is under full team control until 2031. Thus far in 2026, Sproat has struggled a bit with command, posting a 4.13 BB/9 and a 5.43 ERA in 69.2 innings. This isn’t necessarily indicative of Sproat’s long-term skillset but recent performance is never ignored in the big leagues and could lean teams one way or another when considering multiple offers, which the Tigers will assuredly get before the trade deadline. So, are Sproat and Williams enough for the Tigers to pull the trigger?
I honestly have my doubts, but with how teams have been so hesitant to move prospects of late, the price tag on Skubal could end up being lower than many think. Having five or six years of both Sproat and Williams is much more valuable to a Tigers team that sits at 35-48, than a few months of Tarik Skubal will be.
As for the Brewers, if the cost to acquire Skubal is three of their eight top 100 prospects, don’t be surprised if they pass and continue to build and develop from within their own system. On the flip side, if Detroit decides Sproat combined with Williams, Pena or Adamczewski is enough to move their ace, don’t be surprised if Milwaukee ends up being the last team standing at the end of the season.
Pirates
Another team with a ton of prospect pedigree in their farm system could also surprise the league during this trade deadline season. The Pirates are currently three games behind the final wild card spot in the National League and need something to push them over the top in order to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
The pitching core led by Paul Skenes has deservedly been the main attraction in Pittsburgh for the last couple of years, but they have also been a top ten team in offense this season, even with Oneil Cruz missing a good chunk of time. On top of that, other than Bryan Reynolds and Konnor Griffin to some extent, the team really doesn’t have much in the way of long-term payroll commitments. Griffin’s nine-year $140M contract is fairly team-friendly for a former number one ranked prospect and gives the Pirates plenty of options to build around him.
The question Ben Cherington has to answer is this: is now the time for the Pirates to take advantage of their financial flexibility and make a move toward having the best rotation baseball has seen in years?
Like all the other teams on this list, it’s going to take the farm to make this happen. The top three prospects on the list for the Pirates are right-hander Seth Hernandez (7th overall), outfielder Edward Florentino (18th overall), and infielder Wyatt Sanford (100th overall). Let’s not forget the major league roster though, because Esmerlyn Valdez deserves a mention in his own right since he only has 13 big league games under his belt.
A combination of Seth Hernandez and Florentino or Valdez may very well be enough to nab Skubal, but Hernandez is considered to have the potential to be an ace himself, so on the surface this seems like a tough sell for the Pirates. Hernandez has been dominant in High-A this season, posting a 2.02 ERA with a 14.44 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 in 62.1 innings. One can see why he has such high expectations.
That kind of upside makes him extraordinarily difficult to part with. Add in the fact that Pittsburgh has avoided moves like this for over a decade, and this remains one of the more unlikely scenarios on this list. For the first time in over a decade, the Pirates have the pieces to make noise in October. Whether Cherington makes moves at the deadline will tell us everything about where this organization thinks it is.
The Shadow: MLB’s Labor War
Any team trading for Skubal is doing so without knowing what a long-term extension would look like under a new CBA. Before any of the names above are traded, it’s important to remember that behind the scenes in every front office across baseball, executives are factoring in the potential for a lockout next season.
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1st, 2026. Negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA have already started, but neither side appears close to compromising. MLB has already proposed a salary cap and salary floor that were almost immediately rejected by the MLBPA. Interim executive director Bruce Meyer called the proposal “the worst system for any players in any major sport.” Not a great sign. Commissioner Rob Manfred has acknowledged the risk of a work stoppage similar to the 1994-95 strike that canceled the World Series. Again, not a great sign.
The likelihood of a work stoppage is real and could be a big reason why the Tigers want players with plenty of years of team control. Acquiring prospects with a whole career ahead of them is a great way to hedge against any immediate risk associated with a potential pause in the sport.
Where does this leave the Skubal deal?
First, Skubal would likely be setting a record pitching contract in free agency under the current bargaining agreement. Projections are somewhere in the range of $40-$50M per year over five or six years. With a lockout or even with a new bargaining agreement, who knows how that will affect the amount that teams can spend on free agents. The real risk for teams gunning for a deadline trade is that they aren’t 100 percent certain what a long-term extension for Skubal would even look like down the road.
The proposed salary cap and floor would dramatically change how teams manage their payroll and would require both the Yankees and Dodgers to reduce payroll. On the flip side, a team like the Brewers would need to actually increase their payroll to stay within the margins MLB has set. This would then give the Brewers a bit more incentive to trade for Skubal and keep him on the roster, as they would need to spend the money anyway.
For now, everyone gets to play the sit-and-wait game, but these negotiations are all but guaranteed to change how decisions are made across all front offices in Major League Baseball.
Tarik Skubal Trade Predictions:
If I had to make a prediction, I don’t think the Dodgers end up pulling the trigger here. Especially under the shadow of the new bargaining agreement, they may very well be forced to pivot toward cheaper and younger talent. While I don’t think the salary cap proposed by MLB will stick, the Dodgers projected 2027 payroll sits north of $350M, well above the proposed $245M. Not to mention, their rotation is already among the best in baseball, if not the best.
The two teams I can see making a push are the Yankees and Brewers, but I reserve the right to be wrong five weeks from now. Here’s how it looks:
The Yankees projected 2027 payroll sits under the proposed salary cap at $235M. This at least gives them a shot at being able to extend Skubal. They would still have to eliminate some payroll by moving someone like Ryan McMahon who is due to make $16M in 2027, but that’s a tough call at the moment considering everyone is still in wait-and-see mode.
Yankees Deal: Elmer Rodriguez + Carlos Lagrange + Spencer Jones for Tarik Skubal.
It’s a package both sides should heavily consider. This would give Detroit two top 100 pitchers with a ton of team control and an athletic position player that is on the cusp of being everyday MLB-ready. It’s exactly what they’re asking for.
The Brewers, on the other hand, are a fun one to dream about. With a 2027 payroll projected to be just over $70M, the potential for a new floor gives them the perfect excuse to move a couple prospects and pay Skubal for the next five or six years, all while still having depth in their farm system. With Jesus Made blocking Jett Williams, it seems like the perfect fit to throw Williams in the deal for Skubal. Logan Henderson has plenty of upside but is injured at the moment, so where the Yankees deal has two pitchers and a position player, the Brewers are fit to do the opposite.
Brewers Deal: Brandon Sproat + Jett Williams + Josh Adamczewski for Tarik Skubal
The ideal deal here for the Brewers starts with what is stated above. At 76th overall, Adamczewski is the lower-cost piece and preserves much of the depth Milwaukee currently has in their farm system. Pena is the more athletic of the two and carries a more complete profile, but Adamczewski is currently hitting a robust .340/.463/.562 with 9 homeruns and 11 steals between High-A and Double-A this season and could potentially get the deal done.
If the Tigers push back, it would not be completely unreasonable for the Brewers to include Pena considering the depth they currently have in the infield with Made, Pratt, and Turang. After all, the entire goal is to win the whole thing, and Skubal is on the short-list of players capable of carrying a team to the promised land. Due to both of their ages and the Tigers’ requirements, it will depend on how Detroit, and the Brewers for that matter, value immediate big-league contribution versus the potential ceiling of each prospect acquired. Ultimately, any deals depend heavily on what other packages Detroit receives before August 3.
I put my money on the Brewers.
All data as of 6/28/2026*
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