The Baseball Effect | The Diamond
Buster Posey agreed with me.
The night before the Patrick Bailey trade, I was talking with a friend about the Giants’ offense — or I guess I should say, the lack of one. Dead last in multiple major offensive categories. The veterans they built this thing around weren’t doing anything. Rafael Devers the slugger had turned into Rafael Devers the sluggish — 50 wRC+ through April. Willy Adames was quietly posting one of the worst starts of his career — 66 wRC+ through April. And every night, one of the nine spots in that lineup was occupied by Patrick Bailey — two-time Gold Glove winner, the best defensive catcher in baseball, and a man hitting .146 at the time of the trade. My friend asks me what the Giants should be doing to start winning games and I respond:
“Just trade Bailey, already.”
As good as Bailey is behind the plate, the Giants need bats that make an actual impact in that lineup. The glove alone wasn’t going to save this offense. Something had to give.
The next morning, Buster Posey made the move. Not because of me, of course, but because his group of $30 million supposed hitters forced him to.
The Giants traded Patrick Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson and the 29th pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. Bailey, only 26 and still under team control for another few years, leaves as the only Giants catcher to win back-to-back Gold Gloves. Lucky for him, he arrives in Cleveland, where the Guardians sat at 21–19 and in first place in the AL Central at the time of the trade.
The Giants, meanwhile, were 15–23…one of the worst records in baseball.
What The Patrick Bailey Trade Means for the Giants
There will be a portion of fans that see this trade and think Buster is desperate or maybe he isn’t as good in the front office as he was on the field. That’s fair. Patrick Bailey is a legitimate star at his position but only half-way. By literally every defensive metric available from any source, he is the best catcher in baseball. On the other other side of the ball, by literally every offensive metric available from any source he has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. Unfortunately, that’s not anything new. Since 2024, Patrick Bailey’s .597 OPS ranked 255th out of 257 players with at least 700 PAs. The only two guys behind him are Ke’Bryan Hayes and Victor Scott II.
The honest truth on Bailey’s offensive production: There wasn’t any. Period.
The idea was that you trade for one of the best hitters in baseball and your lineup gets better. You sign one of the better hitting shortstops in the game and your lineup gets better. That was the deal that allowed you to keep the best defensive catcher in baseball in your lineup day in and day out. But when the guys you’re paying $30 million a year for aren’t doing anything at the plate, it’s impossible to deal with a black-hold in the bottom third of the lineup.
The beauty of moving Patrick Bailey with the Giants current situation as it is, they now get to see who sinks and who swims — rookies and veterans alike. Jesus Rodriguez is undoubtedly part of the reason they let Bailey go. Posey believes in him (more on that later). A lot of the same can be said for Daniel Susac, who not long ago, started his career with five straight hits in his first five at-bats. A feat Bailey himself had never accomplished in his career. Not to mention, you have one of, if not, the best power hitting prospects in all of baseball in Bryce Eldridge. So, let the kids play. Or more accurately, let them hit. The Giants need it now more than ever.
Since the trade, the Giants have gone 3-0, enjoyed their first walk-off of the season (by none other than Jesus Rodriguez) and beat the Dodgers 9-3 and 6-2 in LA. Devers homered and drew a bases-loaded walk, Adames had a two-strike clutch hit in the seventh in game one, and even Eric Haase joining in on the fun with a two-homer performance (the first catcher ever to do that in a LA in a Giants uniform, by the way) in game two to make it a statement against their longtime rivals. Was it directly because Bailey was gone? Of course not. Baseball doesn’t work on a 48-hour sample size. But when you throw a bat in the lineup that doesn’t have a hole in it, the entire context of how a game plays out can change. Momentum is more easily acquired and sustained at the plate. In the short term, it seems to be working already.
The return itself — Wilkinson and a draft pick — will get debated. Wilkinson is a legitimate arm: a 10th-round pick who has carved up Double-A hitters to a 1.59 ERA with a 33.6% strikeout rate. He may not be an ace, but the lefty’s demeanor on the mound looks to have slight shades of Madison Bumgarner, a type of fire the Giants have been missing for awhile. So, who knows, maybe he does turn into an ace. Oh by the way he throws an invisi-ball. Simply put, it’s a fastball that unexpectedly crosses the plate before you even know it was released. And no, he does not throw 105 mph, but the extension on his delivery and his low arm slot provide him one of the most deceptive pitches in the minors. With that said, the Giants’ rotation depth is thin enough that he could be in the majors quicker than expected. And of course, we will see what happens with the two first round picks the Giants now have.
What The Patrick Bailey Trade Means for the Guardians
Cleveland made this trade for one reason. Well, maybe two: pitching and surplus value.
The Guardians have developed one of the most consistent pitching programs in baseball over the last decade. Along with that, they just brought up their #1 overall pick from the 2024 draft in second basemen Travis Bazzana. In his short tenure, he’s already walking almost twice as much as he’s striking out, which I’m sure is a pleasant sign for Cleveland. Chase DeLauter is looking like an all-star. He is also walking more than he is striking out, all while sitting at 149 wRC+. And we can never forget about Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan. This is a lineup that is seemingly starting to come together and be tough on opposing pitchers. It’s no longer just Ramirez teams need to worry about. So what do you do to put yourself over the top in the AL Central?
You bring in the best catcher in baseball.
Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges have been the two-headed dragon behind the dish for the Guardians thus far. That may be strong words considering neither has really contributed anything of worth up to this point. Bo Naylor was hitting .143/.200/.238 with a 23 wRC+ over 28 games. Austin Hedges has been more or less in the same realm his entire career, though to his credit posted a 120 wRC+ in the 18 games he has played this year. Regression is imminent.
Enter Patrick Bailey.
The king of catching statistics. He is obviously #1 in Statcasts’ Fielding Run Value Rankings. And he is top five in just about every other category as well except blocking. Since 2024, the Guardians have 24 defensive runs saved. Patrick Bailey, by himself, has 41.
Think about what the Guardians actually gave up offensively: nothing. Naylor wasn’t producing. The move from Naylor to Bailey is a zero sum game at the plate, potentially even a positive one considering Bailey has an abnormally low .180 BABIP — and then an enormous upgrade behind the plate. Bailey immediately forms what might be the best defensive catching tandem in baseball alongside Austin Hedges, a guy who has spent his career being respected for exactly the same qualities. A pitching-first organization just upgraded one of the most important relationships in baseball— the bond between the mound and the man calling the pitches 60 ft 6 inches away — without sacrificing a single run in the process.
There’s also an organizational thread worth noting. Former Guardians associate manager Craig Albernaz, who had a close working relationship with Bailey during his time in San Francisco, had reportedly been advocating for this move. When the fit clicked, Cleveland pounced. That’s not luck — that’s a front office that knew what it wanted and went out and got it. Plus Plus move for a team in first place and a chance at playoffs.
Why Buster Posey Was Right
Buster Posey may be the most qualified person to evaluate catching talent on the planet. He won an NL MVP. A batting title. Three World Series rings — all from behind the plate. He defined what the catcher position looked like in San Francisco for over a decade. He understands the position, in a way that very few people ever will.
And he just decided that even the best defensive catcher in the game wasn’t worth the lineup spot.
Posey Paradox
This isn’t a failure of imagination. This is a former catcher making a stone-cold decision based on the expectations that come with being a catcher in the big leagues. Being the best defensive catcher in baseball isn’t enough when your team isn’t scoring runs. It’s a two way street and after a certain point it doesn’t seem like he hesitated to let that be known. He didn’t wait until July and let the narrative play out for two more months while the offense continued to struggle. And to be honest, it’s a decisiveness we haven’t seen too much in baseball. Especially this early in the season.
That decisiveness is either his greatest strength as a young executive, or the thing that’s going to define his time off the field in a way that isn’t so positive if all doesn’t end well. We won’t know for a while. What we can say right now is that his understanding of the situation was obviously correct. The Giants needs bats. And Posey, of all people, knows all too well how important that is when trying to win baseball games.
Jesús Rodríguez Takes The Wheel
Here’s the part of all of this that is really intriguing.
When the Giants acquired Jesús Rodríguez in the Camilo Doval trade last summer, I noticed something about his profile. Right-handed bat. Pretty good hit tool, with a little bit of pop to go with it. So, I dug a little into the numbers. To my surprise, his minor league stat lines were eerily similar to what Posey’s accomplished in his MLB career. Now Jesus Rodriguez is obviously not a carbon copy of Buster Posey, but close enough that if you’re a Hall of Fame catcher watching film, certain skills might stand out to you.
Per reporting from The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, when Posey was shown clips of Rodríguez, he fell in love with the bat immediately. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a former catcher recognizing something he trusts in a young player — something that already helped bring a championship to San Francisco 12 years ago.
Here is what I tweeted after Posey acquired Jesus Rodriguez in the Camilo Doval trade:
Sure, it’s the minors we’re talking about here, but even so, the parallel is striking. This piece of the puzzle didn’t start with the Bailey trade. It started the moment Posey identified Rodríguez as the catcher he could see contributing in a big way in the majors. Especially with the bat.
Rodríguez has since gone 6-21 with a home run and a walk-off single in his first big-league action. Daniel Susac — the Rule 5 pick who was posting a 1.152 OPS before an elbow injury in April — is nearly back from his rehab assignment. These aren’t placeholders. They’re the plan now. Posey didn’t trade Bailey just because. He manufactured a situation and a depth chart that allowed for a move of this nature.
What Defense Is Worth — and What It Isn’t
A bit on defense today, because it is worth noting even with all of the offense talk happening.
Since Patrick Bailey entered the majors in 2023, his Fielding Run Value is +85. That number sits 32 runs ahead of any other fielder in baseball — at any position. He leads all catchers in framing runs. He leads in Caught Stealing Above Average. He leads in Defensive Runs Saved. By every measure available, he is the best defensive player in the game, and it isn’t particularly close, but peak value for these skills may have came and went at this point.
The Automated Ball-Strike system is part of the story, although its no where near the whole book. ABS is gradually closing the gap between elite framers and average catchers…kind of — Bailey’s ABS challenge numbers were already ranking in the bottom quarter of catchers this season, and Posey, as a former receiver, understands what the could potentially mean for the future as ABS becomes more normalized. Now of course, it is only a few calls per game that are really affecting the potential value of pitch framing but the single biggest pillar of Bailey’s defensive advantage silently lost just a little bit of value with it.
And for that and a career .224 hitter, the Giants received a Tugboat and a first round pick. Not too bad, if you ask me.
The War Room
(Fantasy Impact)
Patrick Bailey, Cleveland Guardians: Drop him in most standard formats if he wasn’t already. The one narrow exception: if your league counts caught stealing as a standalone category, Bailey is worth a look. He owns the fastest pop time to third base in baseball and is obviously one of the best arms behind the plate. He already threw Trevor Larnach out at second in his Guardians debut. Add one CSA to the books in my dynasty league.
Jesús Rodríguez, San Francisco Giants: Rodriguez is definitely worth a roster spot, especially in two-catcher formats. He’s hitting .286 in his first big-league action, he has a home run, and he’s suddenly the primary catcher for a team that dire need of run producers. The Giants are going to play him. He’s catcher-eligible and maybe 3B/OF eligible in some leagues as well. He has real offensive upside that Bailey never had. Pick him up in redraft, and maybe even target him in dynasty if it’s not already too late.
Daniel Susac, San Francisco Giants: The deeper stash. A 1.152 OPS before the elbow injury — small sample, but Susac has a great track record in the minors as well to back it up. He’s nearly back from the IL and the Giants are committed to keeping him given his Rule 5 status. In 15-team leagues and any dynasty format, he’s worth carrying. The Giants may have quietly stumbled into one of the better young catching tandems in the game.
The 9th Inning
Patrick Bailey walked-off the Giants with a grand slam against the Dodgers. He hit a walk-off inside-the-park homerun against the Phillies. He won two Gold Gloves as a Giant and carried himself with class every single day. He’ll be a Giant forever.
But now he gets to go to Cleveland, where a pitching-first organization will put his elite glove to work the way it was always meant to be used. There might not be a much better fit than that for a skillset like Bailey’s. It’s also never a bad thing to be closer to home.
Back in San Francisco, the lineup card has a new name behind the plate — one that Buster Posey himself acquired, one whose profile he knows and trusts in a way that goes beyond the numbers.
The night before this trade, a Giants fan on his couch could already see that something needed to give. The offense was broken, the catcher position wasn’t contributing the way it should, and the young alternatives were ready. Posey saw the same thing — and in May, of all months, he executed beautifully.
Whether that’s visionary or impatient, we will soon find out. But going 3-0 — including a walk-off, a 9–3 whooping in Los Angeles and a catcher with a two-homer game — suggests that just maybe Buster Posey will show us he was right all along.
— The Baseball Effect | thebaseballeffect.com | Photo by Tommy Russell – view more at The Press Box
*All stats are as of 5/12/2026
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