The Baseball Effect

It’s finally draft season. Over the next month or so fantasy owners everywhere will be opening their leagues draft clients in search of the perfectly constructed roster that will surely bring them a championship in 2020. With that, comes all the speculation regarding who will be this years most valuable pick. Only time will tell, but here are some middle infield sleepers with the potential to return big value.

Manny Machado, SS

While 2019 seemed uncharacteristic for a guy who just signed a $300 million contract, Machado actually posted very similar numbers with the Orioles in 2017. He hit over 30 home runs, had a batting average of about .255 and got on base a little over a third of the time. So, whats so uncharacteristic about that? Not much actually. While 2019 is probably closer to Machado’s floor, he still hit over 30 home runs while placing in the top-30 in average exit velocity. Yes, Machado’s quality of contact took a little bit of a dip (lowest barrel percentage since 2015), but this is one of the most consistent fantasy threats over the last five years. After being considered a first round option as recent as last year, Machado is currently being drafted around the fourth and fifth round, a potential steal in any league no matter what position he start at.

Brandon Lowe, 2B

There is a reason the Rays were willing to take a chance on Lowe and sign him to a six-year-deal. Over 82 games last season Lowe was able to hit .270/.336/.514 with 17 home runs and five steals. Lowe was also ranked in the top 40 in according to average exit velocity and top 20 in barrel rate. Extrapolate that of the course of an entire season and you get 34 home runs and 10 steals from a guy with a current ADP of about 200. While some might say Lowe is more likely to miss the 30 home run mark than surpass it, his ability to put the barrel to the ball and consistently make hard contact could prove otherwise. With that, fading the injury is usually the safe play here but when you are 200 picks in, the risk is a little more limited.

Elvis Andrus, SS

Yes, shortstop may very well be the deepest position heading into 2020, so how could there really be any sleepers? It’s because Andrus is not a shortstop play, but a stolen base play. Last year, Andrus stole 31 bases and is only two years removed from posting a 20-20 campaign, all the while hitting .297 (injuries riddled his 2018 season). For how expensive steals can get in the earlier rounds, Andrus provides a value not many other can at an ADP close to 150. While many owners are aiming to grab Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bo Bichette, some will see the value in waiting a few rounds in order to secure a better player at a position with less depth. Andrus is proven and has become the de facto leader of the Texas Rangers clubhouse, maybe he can lead your fantasy team in steals too.

Amed Rosario, SS

Amed Rosario is Elvis Andrus 2.0. While Rosario did not have quite as many stolen bases (19) last season, he did outperform Andrus in home runs (15), if only by three. One potential option could be to plan on drafting both and use them interchangeably throughout the season. Although, predicting hot and cold streaks can be risky and potentially unnecessary if one or both are consistently performing like they have in the past. Rosario is being taken about 10-15 spots after Andrus. With very similar profiles, both Andrus and Rosario afford owners the ability to be patient, while giving them 20-20-plus upside toward the back-end of the draft.

Eduardo Escobar, 2B

Escobar has increased his home run total every year since 2016. Last year, he topped out at 35, good enough for second among second-basemen. While he was tied with Max Muncy and Mike Moustakas in home runs, he had them beat in both batting average and on-base percentage. There is no reason to think Escobar cannot reach at least 80% of his 2019 production. That would still leave him at about 30 home runs, while being the 13th second basemen off the board. In 10 and 12 team leagues that is a potential steal for this subtly safe pick.

Cavan Biggio, 2B

The next generation has arrived. Had Cavan Biggio played in more games, he may have very well hit 25 home runs and stole 25 bases. He ended up hitting .234/.364/.429 with 16 home runs and 14 steals. The batting average could be an issue but cutting down on his 28% strikeout rate should help a bunch. His on base skills hint at the possibility of an improved strikeout rate, as his walk rate was in the top two percent of the league. Biggio is still somewhat raw as a player, but he has great foot speed, can defend his position well and was already on pace to hit almost thirty home runs. He has the potential to end up top five at the position, but as of right now, he is the 14th second baseman off the board with an ADP of almost 140. To put that in perspective, Whit Merrifield, the fifth second basemen off the board, hit .302/.348/.463 with 16 home runs and 20 steals. The difference in OPS between the two? .18 points. While Merrifield has proven himself in the past, the potential value on guys like Biggio is too great to pass up. Careful when reaching for the early speedsters, there is value to be found in other parts of the market.

Michael Chavis, 2B

Michael Chavis’ 2020 outlook might as well be his 2019 narrative copy-and-pasted into the next chapter of his career. Chavis hit the ground running in 2019 hitting .263 with 15 home runs in 270 at-bats. The buzz surrounding the young Red Sox player was obvious, but then he stopped running. In August, Chavis only hit .156 and ended up on the injured list after catching a ball in shallow center field and injuring his left shoulder. The power potential is obvious but the batting average and plate discipline is a potential cause for concern. With that said, Chavis is currently being drafted at around the 260th pick and there are not too many guys (Hunter Renfroe is an option) in that range with the same power upside.

Buster Posey, C

Some have written Posey off. Some still believe in the Giants cornerstone. Whether one is on either side is beside the point. The fact is, last year Posey was bad in just about every category for fantasy owners. The former MVP was at least a lock to help with batting average, that is, until he finished 2019 with a .257 mark. Another not-so-great fact is that Posey struck out more and walked less compared to his career marks. All things considered his plate discipline is still well-above average but where does that leave 2020? While Posey is being drafted around pick 270, the giants have injected new life into the club house in the form of an entirely new coaching staff. And the focus of this new coaching staff? Development and improvement at every level including the major leagues. The new era could be a fresh start for a team that is years removed from operating any differently than they had in 2010 and so on. As polarizing as Gabe Kapler can be, his success on the development front is obvious. He is a part of the reason the Dodgers have had such success in the minors and majors over the last half-decade or so. So, since Kapler improved the Dodgers affiliates by cutting out junk food, who’s to say he can’t improve the health of Posey’s swing. Buster is a career .302 hitter and it is understood that the Giants are embracing the new changes in San Francisco, so there is cause for optimism, but it’s just regression, right?