The Baseball Effect

On Saturday, the Padres and the Rays agreed to a trade that would send OF Manuel Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll to Tampa Bay, in exchange for RP Emilio Pagan.

While this deal does not have the headline-staying-power of the Mookie Betts trade, it does have a few implications in the fantasy world and in Major League Baseball.

Manuel Margot

The Rays strengthened their outfield depth by adding, yes, another Padres outfielder. After trading for Hunter Renfroe back in December the team decided Kevin Kiermaier needed a counter-part out in center field. Kiermaier has struggled to stay on the field over the past four years and 2019 was the first time he played in more than 105 games. Margot, who was apparently targeted by the Rays for some time, is an elite defensive center fielder and should have no problem producing an extra out or two. Margot produced 11 outs above average in 2019 and 13 in 2018. Unfortunately, for both of them their offensive prowess has an almost inverse correlation when compared to their defensive proficiency. Neither Kiermaier, nor Margot have hit more than 15 home runs in a season, with both of their career highs coming in 2017 at 15 and 13 respectively. Margot actually walks a bit more (3% more in 2019) and seems to be capable of stealing more bases (3 more steals over the last 3 years) , all the while staying on the field more consistently. These two outfielders are actually eerily similar when looking at a few of their core stats over their full careers.

So the Rays have found their new Kevin Kiermaier, but what exactly does that mean? The Rays have a couple options. The first, because both of these players are opposite handed of one another, is to platoon them in center field. Unfortunatley, when looking at the splits between Kiermaier and Margot in 2019, they again have very similar stat lines.

Kiermaier:

Margot:

The Rays, being one of the smartest organizations in baseball, are fully aware of the risk that Kiermaier’s health brings in center and that’s exactly what is believed to be a key reason for the acquisition of Margot. Now, it can’t be ignored that Kiermaier is 29 and owed an average of about $11 million over the next three years, plus an option for 2023 for $13 million. Margot is only 25 and would be under team control until after the 2022 season. Everything seems to point to the fact that it might be a good time to trade Kevin Kiermaier and let Margot man center field on a near every day basis, but this is the Rays. It’s likely the Rays continue to do as they have done and find the best way to integrate every player on their roster to better work for the team as a whole. This is great for small market baseball, but for fantasy owners it can be frustrating finding value. As of now, the best bet is that neither Kiermaier, nor Margot will receive the lions share of playing time in center field for the 2020 season. With that said, stolen bases are a skill both of these players have and if Kiermaier (or Margot) misses time, Margot (or Kiermaier) could become worthy of a spot at the back-end of any fantasy roster.

Emilio Pagan

Emilio Pagan was stellar last season with the Rays, pitching 70 innings while striking out 96 batters, an impressive stat for the de facto closer. To go along with it, Pagan finished with a ridiculous .83 WHIP. He relied mostly on his fastball, which he threw a little over 60 percent of the time and has a spin rate better than 86 percent of other fastballs in the game. To keep hitter off-balance, Pagan mixes in a cutter at around 87.5 mph, eight mph slower than his fastball. A combination of these two pitches, and a rare curve-ball here and there (he only threw 22), allowed Pagan to perform in the top five percent in terms of xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, while being in the top seven percent in terms of walk rate. It’s no wonder he ended up with the closing job in Tampa Bay, but the move to San Diego could prove less fruitful for fantasy owners. Pagan joins a strong bullpen lead by top-closer Kirby Yates, who owned a 7.77 K/BB ratio, a 1.119 ERA and 41 saves in 60 innings. Pagan is expected to support Yates in a setup role of some kind and could prove useful in leagues that have added holds as a category. In standard leagues, Pagan is a guy to keep an eye on in the even that Yates misses time in 2020.

Logan Driscoll

Logan Driscoll is listed as a cather/outfielder. In 2019, he hit .268/.340/.458 in 142 at-bats in Low-A ball. According to Fangraphs, he is a step above the normal athletic level for catchers, but with basically no professional experience, who knows when Driscoll will be on the radar. Really, the only reason he was included is because the Rays have a knack for finding talent where nobody else has. The liklihood that Driscoll is draft-able even in the distant future is not great, but the Rays have proven capable of talent evaluation, so let’s just go with it.

Where Is The Value?

This deal should prove beneficial to both clubs over the next couple of years as they bolstered aspects of each respective roster that needed a little bit of a boost. On the other hand, the deal doesn’t exactly create any value for fantasy owners on draft day. Pagan is not going save nearly as many games as he did in 2019 and Margot, while he may get more playing time than in San Diego, will almost certainly be mixed and matched with Kiermaier and other Rays outfielders. That being said, in deeper leagues where holds and stolen bases can make or break a week or year, there is potential value to be found here at the back end of drafts. However, keeping an eye on the situation could prove most valuable, as in any case, the owner that did their due diligence has the best chance of finding value where no one else did.