The Baseball Effect

Over the last couple of weeks speculation surrounding if and where Kris Bryant will be traded has risen significantly. One might ask, why would the Cubs trade away one of their most prized players in decades? Not to mention, if they did, where in the world would he go? Well, that’s why we’re here.

The luxury tax threshold for the 2020 season is $208 million. The Cubs current projected payroll is $194 million (Fangraphs), a difference of just $14 million. Didi Gregorius will be making that exact amount this year, coming off of his worst season yet (granted on a one year deal and he was injured but I digress). The Cubs are in a situation where everyone, who helped them get to the World Series, will all be entering free agency at once. The Cubs finally won a world series! Now it’s time to pay up…or maybe trade up.

After 2020, the Cubs can potentially unload some salary, with Tyler Chatwood ($13M) and Jose Quintana ($11.5M) both eligible as free agents. Unfortunately, this doesn’t negate the fact that the Cubs will be losing the entire core of their team to free agency after the 2021 season. This includes:

Kris Bryant (28 y/o), Javier Baez (27.1), Anthony Rizzo (30.5), Wilson Contreras (27.7), Kyle Shwarber (26.9), and Jon Lester (36).

That’s quite the combination of players. One that might even win a world series.

All jokes aside, the Cubs are going to have to figure out who to pay and how much. Also, who to trade. The likelihood is that they will not be able to sign everyone, so what gives? Javier Baez is currently the youngest cornerstone-type player on the roster due to hit free agency in 2021, so a good bet may be that Baez get the first substantial extension. But the Cubs as of right now only have Nico Hoerner and Zack Short as prospects who can impact over the next couple of years, so it is not surprising to hear rumors and speculation that the Cubs are willing to move players like Kris Bryant. Only question is where?

Washington Nationals

• Estimated Payroll 2020: $184 Million
• Current 3B Starter: Asdrubal Cabrera
• Notable 3B Prospect: Carter Kieboom

The World Series Champions. Yes, they are champions but a large part of that is due to the outstanding season that Anthony Rendon just produced. Rendon is now playing with Mike Trout in Los Angeles, so the Nationals are going to need to somehow replace the impact that Rendon had on the field. He did hit 18 home runs and produced 1.9 WAR (according to Fangraphs), but chances are Cabrera is not the answer if Washington wants to play in the last game of the year again. Carter Kieboom can play third but he may turn out more useful at second once his bat is fully developed. At this point, Rendon is arguably the best third baseman in the game, but that doesn’t take away how good Bryant is. Kris Bryant produced almost a five-win season and Rendon still outperformed him in basically every category. Take a look at the comparison which is a marvel at how good Rendon is, more than anything else.

Not much of a comparison, it seems, but Bryant hit 30+ home runs and had an OPS of over .900. If not elite, those are near elite numbers, even if he does strikeout a bit much. However, a few advanced stats tell more of the same story.

Despite the red tape that seemingly surrounds Kris Bryant while comparing him to one of the best pure-hitters in the game right now, he is just a few years removed from an MVP campaign. What better time is there to rent an MVP, than in a “down” year where there are rumors of discontent? Last year, the Nationals payroll hovered right around $208 million. With the addition of Bryant’s contract, their 2020 payroll would be $202.6 million, which seems well within their reach. Who wouldn’t want to go Back-to-Back?

Milwaukee Brewers

• Estimated Payroll 2020: $108 Million
• Current 3B Starter: Eric Sogard
• Notable 3B Propect: Lucas Erceg

After a good 2019, the Brewers find themselves without the services of Mike Moustakas who signed a deal with the Reds for four years. Luckily, Keston Hiura made his arrival obvious with a batting average over .300 and a home run total of 19 in 84 games. Hiura is a bright spot but the absence of Moustakas leaves Eric Sogard to man third base for the Brew Crew in 2020. An offensive decline of that nature definitely won’t help them get back to the NLDS. Not to mention, as underrated as Avisail Garcia is, he will most likely not be the answer either. But, perhaps a combination of him and an MVP third baseman could propel the team to new heights. The Breweres had a payroll of about $134 million in 2019. So far, they are projected at $108 million for 2020. With the addition of a Kris Bryant contract the Brewers would have a total payroll of $126.6 million, while staying under what was spent last year. The need is there, the win-now context is there, the payroll room seems to be there, maybe the Brewers should be the ones signing Kris Bryant to an extension.

Cleveland Indians

• Estimated Payroll 2020: $96 Million
• Current 3B Starter: Jose Ramirez
• Notable 3B Prospect: Nolan Jones

The Indians are in a very interesting situation. With the lowest projected payroll for 2020 on this list, the Indians seem to make more sense than some may think. Cleveland looked to have a formidable offense going into the 2019 season, and was in the race for a good portion of the year. So they traded their two time Cy Young award winning pitcher, Corey Kluber, for a couple of players that fans aren’t too ecstatic about comparatively. Are they really that strapped for cash? If so, so be it. If not? Don’t forget, it was a few short years ago this team was in the world series.

Acquiring Bryant would provide protection for Lindor at the top of the lineup while also creating some depth for the infielders by sliding Ramirez to second base. Cesar Hernandez is a somewhat intriguing player but compared to Bryant or Ramirez its not particularly close. Yes, the Indians also have some decisions to make as far as extensions, Lindor (and Bryant) looks to enter free agency after 2021, while Bieber and Clevinger seem to potentially be in the long term plans, but with a payroll under $100 million, the Indians may have just enough wiggle room. Top prospect, Nolan Jones is projected to reach the big league club by mid-2020, so depending on his progress, a two year window looks potentially very open should the Indians want to take on the risk-reward of adding Kris Bryant to their roster.

Colorado Rockies

• Estimated Payroll 2020: $156 Million
• Current 3B Starter: Nolan Arenado
• Notable 3B Prospect: Aaron Schunk

If the Cubs are worried about payroll over the next few years, the notion that the Rockies and Cubs would switch third baseman does not seem probable. While Arenado has been the pinnacle of third baseman over the past half-decade, the mega-deal he signed with the Rockies would most likely prove too costly to a team that has to figure out a way to retain the players that brought them a championship. If Kris Bryant is already on the roster and is, at least for now, cheaper, it might be a better idea to keep one of the fan favorites.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Estimated Payroll 2020: $184 Million
• Current 3B Starter: Scott Kingery
• Notable 3B Prospect: Alec Bohm

The Philllies have obviously shown that they are all-in on trying to win a world series as soon as possible. The signing of former Nationals star outfielder Bryce Harper among many others, only confirms the enthusiasm the club has for winning in the near future. Kris Bryant is due to make $18.6 million in 2020. Acquiring Bryant would put the Phillies at a total 2020 payroll of approximately $202.6 million, eerily similar to the their friends in Washington. The Phillies top prospect, Alec Bohm, hit .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs in 63 games last season in Double-A. Fangraphs has Bohm entering the major leagues about half-way through the 2020 season, so this may seem like an unnecessary risk for the Phillies, who have already spent tons in free agency. They could be a little extra patient with Bohm and slide Kingery over to CF to make room for Bryant. Although Kingery will most likely get time in center either way, it doesn’t mean Bryant has a better shot at being targeted. But, if the Phillies are committed to winning over the next couple of years, having Kris Bryant and Bryce Harper next to each other on a line-up card definitely wouldn’ t hurt.

Is It Realistic?

In all likelihood the realistic chance of Kris Bryant being traded is not as high as one might like it to be. And while there may be a trend starting where teams trade their stars earlier in their careers, it doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs will follow suit. Nobody will be all that surprised if Kris Bryant starts the 2020 season in a Cubs jersey, and it is probably the most probable outcome but if the Cubs really do think they need to cut bait, crazier things have happened in baseball.