The Baseball Effect

Well, we all new it was coming at some point. The Red Sox have traded the face of their franchise, Mookie Betts, along with starting pitcher, David Price. Betts and Price will head to the Dodgers, while the Red Sox have acquired Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and Brusdar Graterol from the Twins. In return, the Twins will receive Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers.

Transaction Details:

In making this move the Dodgers decided to move another outfield piece, in Joc Pederson, to the Angels in exchange for second-baseman Luis Rengifo. Other players involved in the trade to be named later.

Off-season transactions such as these, can sometimes heavily affect the value of a players not directly involved with the move and that can directly affect ADP in multiple ways. The presence of players such as Betts makes it very difficult for a young prospects to break into the big leagues, while the absence of Betts could provide a good opportunity for that same prospect. With that said, here are a few winners and losers from the Mookie Betts blockbuster.

Winners:

Kenta Maeda – The Twins have finally found the starting pitcher they have been looking for. Over the last five years, Target Field has been a top 12 offensive park when looking at Park Factors by Fangraphs. This does not exactly bode well for Kenta Maeda, who just came over from Dodger Stadium, a top three park in suppressing offense. Maeda has had nice ratios over the last couple of years, but the new ballpark may not be the best fit for a pitcher who’s flyball and homerun-to-flyball percentages jumped 3% last year.

Alex Verdugo – Will Verdugo be able to fill the giant shoes that just exited Fenway Park? No, but he may be able to bring you a fantasy championship. Verdugo looks like he is going to get the lions share of the work in right field for Boston. His on-base skills are nothing to scoff at, he was in the top seven percent in strikeout rate, and his hard-hit ball percentage increased by almost four percent. Oh, not to mention, he could be batting in front of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D Martinez. Mookie Betts surpassed 120 runs scored in three of the last four seasons with the Red Sox. If Verdugo can continue to improve his game he could be on route to scoring 100 runs all the while being a part of a still very potent offense.

Brusdar Graterol – Both the Red Sox and Twins could have used Graterol as their fifth starter, but with the loss of Price it was good on Boston to acquire a pitcher they will be able to use in their rotation as early as this year. With that said, he only has 15 innings between AAA and the Major Leagues, the Red Sox may feel Grateral needs a bit more seasoning before letting him loose in Fenway.

Joc Pederson – Joc Pederson hit 36 home runs in 2019. Joc Pederson will most likely be batting in front of Mike Trout in 2020. Joc Pederson is going to hit more than 40 home runs in 2020.

David Price – Price is a couple of years removed from being the ace he once was but he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career in 107.1 innings pitched last season. He now moves to a more pitcher friendly ballpark where he will face hitters that have, more than likely, never faced him before. He also gets to pitch to pitchers once every time through the batting order. Price may not pitch 220 innings but providing high quality ratios over a reasonable amount of innings is not out of the question.

Losers:

David Price – It looks like Price still has a little left in the tank, but I wouldn’t count on the Dodgers putting too many innings on his arm. Over the last 19 years, only 18 times has a starting pitcher thrown more than 155 innings. Ten out of those 18 times, the feat was accomplished by Clayton Kershaw. Price could do it, but the better bet is the Dodgers want him around for playoffs, so they may not lean on him as heavily as the Red Sox.

Mookie Betts – Other than the difference in hitting environment, nothing really changes. Betts is the best player in baseball second to only Mike Trout.

Luis Rengifo – Rengifo is only 22 but he now has Gavin Lux ahead of him on the depth chart. He has shown a somewhat promising hit tool in the minors but was only able to hit .238 with seven home runs in 357 at-bats last season. Rengifo will be a complimentary player for the Dodgers in 2020, that is unless they aren’t done wheelin’ and dealin’.

Tommy LaStella – Before today, LaStella was setup to spend the 2020 season in front of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, and Justin Upton. Today, he is projected (according to Fangraphs) to hit in front of Andrelton Simmons in the seven spot. Last years breakout was a great surprise for the Angels and fantasy teams everywhere, but the lack of protection LaStella is facing casts a shadow on the question of whether or not he can repeat his performance from 2019.

Jo Adell/Brian Goodwin – Adell was considered by many a potential sleeper with a lot of late round value going into the 2020 season and Goodwin was coming off a season of improvement. After the move to acquire Joc Pederson, the Angels seem like they are willing to wait before calling Adell up for good. Pederson will most likely take the majority of at-bats in right field for the Angels, while Goodwin fills in a complementary role. Pederson is set for free agency in 2021, giving Adell just enough time to ready himself for a starting role after this season, barring any set backs in AAA.

It has been a hell of an off-season and after today not one many will forget for a long while. Maybe this is the year the Dodgers finally take home a trophy, or maybe their halo wearing neighbors have other plans. The Twins definitely did not disappoint in 2019 and will look to build on a very solid year, while the Red Sox try not to step on the toes of their fans by trading away the fan favorite. Only time will tell how these stories play out but the only thing that really matters is…baseball is back.