The Baseball Effect

2019 has been a blast so far. Like every other year, there have been highs and there have been lows. Hopefully the good outweighs the bad for most, unlike when I decided to drop Bo Bichette for Ryan Pressly in an auction keeper league. Patience is a virtue, don’t forget that. So what if I could have had one of the most productive up and coming stars for just $1? Luckily, I was able to find value (including the Bichette for Pressly move) in numerous areas in 2019. One of which being Jeff McNeil, who helped keep a few teams in playoff contention. Every year a new pool of players reveals itself to house some of the most valuable players in the game. With that said, this is not an MVP debate, we will save that for another time. What this will be, is a glance into where you might be able to squeeze out that extra 2% (shout-out to Keri!) worth of value that sends you home with a championship.

Dansby Swanson

Generally, if you get drafted as the #1 overall pick, there is going to be some over-evaluation associated with your name, but Swanson seems to have flipped the table on this one, even if it took a few years. Swanson’s career started off with a bit of hype but as the new class of shortstops seem to consistently raise the bar, Swanson has been all but tossed to the side. In both 2018 and 2019 Swanson has ranked #19 in wRC+ among all shortstops, with guys like Ahmed Rosario and Kevin Newman ranking above him. That isn’t all that great, especially if you’re not in a 20 team league, which most people aren’t. So, why is Dansby on this list? Well, for that exact reason. After all the hype, Swanson has been just okay, but when you look deeper he has actually improved more than it seems. In 2018 Swanson had an average exit velocity of 86.8mph. This year he is sitting at 89.8mph, implying Dansby is simply making better contact more often. Digging a bit further, his Exit Velo heat map suggests that he has dramatically improved his bat to ball skills.

The chart on the left (2018) suggests that Swanson was not able to make hard contact with anything that was not thrown basically right down the middle of the plate. Fast forward to 2019 and it does not, at all, look like the same player. To go along with this wonderful chart from baseball savant, Swanson has also increased his barrel percentage by 6.3%. Swanson seems to have finally gotten comfortable with big league pitching, or he is enjoying the new ball, or maybe it’s a little of both. Looking ahead, Dansby is only 25 and has also marginally increased his BB/9 while decreasing his K/9, so while everyone else is taking a SS in the early rounds next year, just maybe, you wait for the 2015 #1 overall pick.

Marcus Semien

It seems as though no matter what Marcus Semien does, he still has the stigma of bad defense and an underwhelming bat looming around his name. Maybe its just me, but after a season like 2019, there is no way anyone can say Semien has not completely overhauled his player outlook for years to come. Again, the new class of shortstops has out shadowed a player who will be vastly underrated in 2020. Okay maybe not vastly but unlike the new kids on the block, Semien has taken time to mature into the hitter he is today (not to take away from the massive improvement on defense as well). Marcus has always been a low end source of power and speed and has shown flashes of “brilliance” in the past (27 HRs, 10 SBs in 2016) but has never been able to establish himself as a premier player at the position in terms of fantasy. Again, 2016 has been his best year up to this point when looking at his counting stats, but slide down his stat line a bit and you will see he ended the year with just a .300 OBP and an average of .238. If you are going to bat .238 nowadays, you better be in the Khris Davis range for homeruns. Granted, Semiens BABIP was a little low that year at .268 and luckily for him it didn’t stay there for long. Ever since 2016, he has sat right around the .300 mark, with this year (ironically) being the least “lucky” of the three, sitting at .289. Aside from the bad luck seemingly out of the picture, Semien has completely flipped his plate discipline. Take a look at the last 4 years:

Semien has almost cut his strikeout rate in half, all the while adding 3-4% on his walk rate. That is nothing to scoff at. Add that together with the fact that he has also increased his barrel percentage by 3.5% and you can start to see a little something brewing. Oh and his hard hit rate is up 5% as well. Semien has been well known to be a hard worker and a leader in the A’s clubhouse, so if he can continue to improve his game or even stay consistent with what he has done in 2019, he has a chance to be one of the most undervalued players in 2020.

Bold Prediction: Marcus Semien will have the same value as Xander Bogaerts in 2020, but with more steals.

Didi Gregorius

Before injuries derailed Didi’s 2019 season, he was on his way to being a perennial top ten shortstop in fantasy. His 2018 stat line is as follows: .268/.335/.494 with 27 HRs and 10 steals. This was good enough for Didi to finish 6th in wRC+. Although this does not directly translate to fantasy success, Didi has the potential to put up big numbers for a cheap price. For one, we all know how much Didi has loved that short right field (All of his 2018 homeruns went to right field or right-center) and it doesn’t hurt that he has the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge in the same lineup (so long as they stay healthy). So far in 2019, Didi has hit 14 HRs in about half as many plate appearances as last year, meaning it looks like the power is still there. He is currently hitting .248 but I will go ahead and contribute that to dusting off some rust from an extended absence. Needless to say this season can be put in the books as an outlier. In the previous three seasons, Gregorius has hit 20 or more homeruns and had at least 70 RBI, but keep in mind those numbers are with the baseball of old. Unfortunately, Didi doesn’t always walk as much as you’d like but similar to the two mentioned above he has also increased his barrel percentage to a career high. Of course, this is a small sample size but pair the new baseball with a strong lineup surrounding a veteran hitter and there’s a chance you might get more value than you bargained for on draft day.