The Baseball Effect

One of the great things about baseball is that it is so consistent, yet so unpredictable all at the same time. Predictions can be made in a general sense but when it comes down to it, nobody really knows what is going to happen over the course of a 162 game season. Below you will find more of that unpredictability and maybe gain a sliver if insight into how to adjust to the unexpected.

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: 89% Owned

Two seasons ago Votto hit 36 homeruns. In 2018, he hit 12, all the while walking less and striking out more. In 2019, unfortunately, it’s more of the same. While he is still walking at an above average clip, he is no longer the Votto of old. Over the past three seasons, Votto’s walk rate has dropped from 19.0% in 2017, to 17.3% in 2018. Now, in 2019, his walk rate has dropped another five percent to 12.6%. Votto’s strikeout rate over the same period has not been encouraging either. An elite 11.7% in 2017, followed by a still above average 16.2%, finally jumps to 23.6% here in 2019. That’s a career high mark so far. Pair that with the fact that Votto is swinging at more pitches out of the zone, while making less contact on those pitches he is swinging at. This could be the beginning of the end for the face of Citizens Bank Park, or he could be doing what Matt carpenter did last year.

Market View- Skill: It would be nice if this was just a really long string of bad luck. Unfortunately, Votto’s BABIP is currently at .260, not exactly giving Votto a great excuse for such an uncharacteristic start to the season. He is a hard sell, but if you are able to get a bite for something you like, pull the trigger.

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 85% Owned

Bell followed up his 2017 breakout year with a disappointing 12 homeruns in 2018. Again, in 2019, Bell is sitting at 12 homeruns…Its May… He apperently lifted the bat off of his shoulder while in the box, resulting in a more direct swing path to the ball. Bell has been unbelievable this season, even aside from the 12 homeruns he has already hit. His current line stands at .361/.391/.665 as of Sunday night. His BABIP is a bit high at around .360, but with an insane hard hit rate of 50.8%, this could very well be a .260, 30+ homer season for the 26 year old. The adjustments he made over the off-season are obviously paying dividends.

Market View – Skill: Bryce Harper hit 34 homeruns, with a .249/.393/.496 slash line in 2018. Haper’s OPS? .889. Bell’s OPS so far in 2019? 1.056. I’d start there.

Jorge Polanco, SS, Minnesota Twins: 73% Owned

Currently has a seven game hitting streak, as well as hits in his last ten out of eleven games. I’ll be honest, he was no where on my radar during preseason. I even passed up on him in waivers a few times, mostly because he didn’t quite fit my roster construction. Two years ago, Polanco hit .256/.313/.410, with 13 homeruns to go along with 13 steals but he already has 8 homeruns this year. Expect maybe some slight batting average regression but Polanco is hitting the ball harder than he ever has in his career. Conservative (ish) projection: .280/.345/.420 with 18 homeruns and 10 steals.

Market Value – Skill (and a little luck): If his BABIP stays at .360, he will be one of the best waiver adds of 2019. The shortstop position is unbelievably strong this year though. Hopefully you picked him up after Trea Turner got hurt, but if you did, don’t be surprised if his trade value isn’t as high as you might think it is.

Avisail Garcia, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: 18% Owned

Will Garcia finally reach that 20 homerun threshold he has been so close to crossing the last few years? In 2017 Avisail hit .330 while putting 18 balls over the fence. The next year his batting average dropped about .100 points and he still ended up hitting one more ball over the fence than he did in 2017. This year he is sitting at a .280 batting average with 9 home runs already. Behind that is a career high hard hit rte of 43.6%. This may be a result of Garcia cutting down his swing percentage on pitches outside of the zone by about three and a half percent. He is simply deciding to swing at better pitches allowing him to make harder contact with the ball. He is also walking a tad more and striking out less so far this season. He just might cross that threshold.

Market Value – Skill: Garcia also has 3 steals to go with those 9 homeruns. He is hitting the ball harder than ever, faster than you might think he is and will only cost you pennies on the dollar. If he is available and you have less OF depth than you’d like, go grab em.

Josh Reddick, OF, Houston Astros: 26% Owned

Reddick is easily forgotten in a Houston lineup that is currently best in the game (That Michael Brantley signing must be feeling pretty good right about now). Playing across from Brantley is someone who is hitting, .331/.386/.459 with an OPS at .845. That type of stat line is very useful in any league at this point. He is striking out less and hitting the ball harder than he has since his rookie year and making more contact on both pitches inside and outside the zone. As the season goes, Reddick may only become relevant in deeper leagues, but enjoy the streak as long as you can. Who knows? It may last until October.

Market Value – Luck: He may be experiencing a bit of luck on the run he is currently on, with a babip of .358, but if you own David Peralta, its time to pickup Josh Reddick and enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves: 49% Owned

Bold Prediction: Dansby Swanson will be the most underrated shortstop at the beginning of next year. Swanson is having a damn good year if you ask me and he should probably be rostered in more than 50% of leagues at this point. He hit another two homeruns today, bringing his total up to 10. He is currently walking at the same exact rate as he did last year, which may not seem great, but to go along with that is a strikeout rate that has dropped about 5%. Overall positive. He has a hard hit rate over 40%. But the biggest difference in Swanson this year, is the fact that he has dropped his swing percentage on pitches out of the zone by literally 10%, allowing for that hard contact to take place more often when he does swing.

Market Value – Skill: Did I mention he also raised his contact rate on pitches outside of the zone? This could be the beginning of Swanson’s prime. Unfortunately for Swanson, the SS position probably has the most talented players in the game right now, so he may be undervalued over the next couple of years. This could end up benefiting your team, so keep a look out.

Remember that all roster moves should coincide with how that individual roster is constructed. Happy Fantasy.